About That Sandbagging (from Erica)

It's not intentional! Every year I give a predicted pace slightly faster than I do my regular training runs. And every year I best it by about 1 min/mile. The only reason I can be accused of sandbagging is that I've made this mistake 6 years in a row. I think it's an annual empathy gap with my future self.  Contemplating my likely pace while sitting in the living room in July, it is very hard to remember the combined influences of racetime adrenaline, crisp fall weather, ibuprofen, competitiveness, wanting to not look like a pansy to the guys on my team, and the realization that if I run faster, this f****** leg will be over sooner.

Therefore, every year, I predict 9:00s and turn in 7:45-8:30s. Sorry about the spreadsheet, Matt.

By the way, info for the 3 people who read this even though they aren't on the team themselves: We use predicted paces to calculate when we can expect to be at transitions, how much we'll get to sleep, and when we'll be at the finish line. The reason we care about getting them exactly (vs. roughly) right is so that we don't incur the wrath of Matt, who really cares about it. We make (gentle) fun of him for it but without Matt's Col. Klink, the POWs would be running the show. We'd be lucky to make it past the opening night beer tent.